Will Nail Polish Kill Scabies?

(Risk) Assessment by cockpit navigation

A modern cockpit for navigation of a mobile home "on land, sea or air" shows current parameters such as

• time and location (geographical Coordinates) IS ,
• [- it IS 12:00 clock, I'm in Stuttgart -]

and forward-looking indicators, such as

• planned finish IS (time and place)
• [- I SHOULD (planned time of arrival) at 14:00 clock in his Frankfurt -] predicted
• finish IS (time and site)
• [- it IS (estimated arrival time if) clock 14:20, until I'm in Frankfurt -]

on.

The exciting thing is the triangle of navigation from the target IS (in the future), the forecast IS (in the future) and the start IS (in the present). The uncertainty is in the forecast. The uncertainty lies not in the target. The goal is certain. The goal is no more and no less than a point of reference. The prognosis is uncertain. The forecast is a forward-looking assessment of the result. The difference between target and forecast is a (multiple) measures of the risk of not achieving the goal. A second measure (Complementary to the first) for the risk is the probability that the entry of the forecast is evaluated. With these two measures, we are well-known understanding that risk is a combination of a Anweichung of a target with the probability of this deviation.

Where the Navi well the prediction of achievement as the date is (estimated time of arrival) is drawn to the probability of the forecast. Or is there already for the delay announcement, "Our train IS 20 minutes late with 75 percent probability in Frankfurt . Arrive ?